FREIGHTER aircraft will be increasingly popular in the next 20 years, Boeing predicts in its latest global market survey.

The latest Boeing forecast calculates that, up to 2041, the world’s cargo fleet will require some 2,800 additional new production and converted freighters to compensate for anticipated growth and for ageing fleet replacement programmes.

Asian airfreight shippers will lead this demand for dedicated air cargo lift, as that traffic lane is predicted to increase by more than four per cent annually over the next 20 years. Consequentially, the Asian region’s freighter aircraft deliveries will rise by a world-leading 38 per cent during the period, reveals the forecast.

The aircraft manufacturer’s latest expansive research document predicts that east Asia-North America airfreight traffic will climb by 4. 4 per cent annually, with east Asia-Europe up by 4.5 per cent, intra-east Asia up by 5.7 per cent, domestic China by 5.3 per cent and south Asia-Europe up by 4.9 per cent, it says.  Also in its latest 20-year forecast, North America traffic flows will increase by 3.1 per cent, Europe–North America by 1.7 per cent, Europe-Latin America by 3.9 per cent, Africa-Europe by 3.2 per cent and Latin America-North America by 2.3 per cent.

Darren Hulst, vice-president of commercial marketing at Boeing, says the plane-maker believes that air cargo traffic will grow by about four per cent per year over the next 20 years which is slightly higher than passenger traffic growth in the period, writes Thelma Etim.

“Demand for freighters will reflect this, increasing by 2.5 to three per cent each year in terms of the dedicated freighter fleet,” he says.

Studying the numbers, Boeing sees that the main [market focus] remains on Asian traffic flows – whether it’s east Asia and North America or to Europe. “Those will still be the two biggest markets,” Hulst points out. “But the highest growth rate will actually be within the east Asian [region]. That will become the third largest flow between now and 2041, surpassing the North America market,” he adds. Throughout the period, trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic and Asia-Europe routes will continue to represent the majority of air cargo flown globally.

Looking at the figures prior to the global health pandemic, much of air cargo was being transported either via main-deck freighters or in the belly-holds of wide-body passenger aircraft. “Trans-Pacific was by far the largest freighter market in terms of the percentage of cargo transported aboard dedicated freighters,” Hulst notes.